South Africa and the broader Southern Africa region are out of an El Niño cycle, which typically brings drought that has had a devastating impact on agriculture in the recent summer season.
On Friday, Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz), said this meant there was reason to be optimistic about the La Niña possibilities and favourable rains in the upcoming season.
However, Sihlobo said that the region must be mindful of the regions the South African Weather Service (SAWS) suggested may be slightly dry for some time) and that even while out of a La Niña cycle soon and in the “neutral” state, the agricultural conditions could still be favourable as the “neutral” state implies normal conditions.
“In essence, we are inclined to believe that the 2024-25 agricultural season may be a period of recovery in South Africa and the Southern Africa region following a challenging drought period in the 2023-24 season, which negatively impacted not only summer grains and oilseeds, but also the livestock industry,” Sihlobo said.
In the SAWS Seasonal Climate Watch for between October this year to February next year issued at the beginning of this month, the meteorological service said the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was still in a neutral state and was predicted to weaken further.
It said current predictions indicate the development of a La Niña state during the start of the summer season, however, there is still significant uncertainty in the predictions.
“It is advised to monitor the ENSO system during the start of the summer season, as it may change the rainfall outlook for the summer rainfall regions if and when the La Niña materialises. Current predictions focus on the early- and mid-summer seasons and indicate wetter conditions over the interior of the country.”
According to this climate watch, the north-eastern parts however at this stage indicate drier conditions extending through to the mid-summer period.
“These predictions may change if the ENSO predictions become more certain towards a La Niña state, and as such continuous monitoring of future seasonal climate watches are advised. Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period.”
SAWS said the anticipated wetter conditions over the interior of the country during the early- and mid-summer seasons may improve water levels, particularly in regions that receive most of rainfall in summer season. It added that drier conditions coupled with above-normal temperatures in the north-eastern parts of the country are likely to increase water loss and reduce water storage levels through evapotranspiration and drought, among other factors.
Furthermore, SAWS said maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal across the country during the forecast period and no significant impact is expected on the energy demand.
“Relevant decision-makers are encouraged to take note of these possible outcomes and communicate with affected businesses and communities accordingly.”
SAWS forecast above-normal rainfall for the central parts and the south-eastern coastal areas of the country during early and mid-summer seasons.
The weather service said this above-normal rainfall forecast for these summer rainfall regions will likely have a positive impact on crop and livestock production.
However, it also warned that below normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the north-eastern areas of the country including Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and northern parts of KwaZulu-Natal Province.
“Therefore, it is recommended that the relevant decision-makers advise farmers in these regions to implement soil and water conservation measures, proper water harvesting and storage techniques, establish effective drainage systems, and adopt other appropriate farming practices.”
The SAWS said it will continue to monitor the weather and climate conditions and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming season.
The global weather forecasters paint encouraging prospects of weather conditions as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University continue to forecast La Niña occurrence.