According to the findings of the International SOS Risk Outlook 2023 report and updated global risk map, as the acute impacts of the pandemic subside in many countries, organisations worldwide are still set to encounter significant risks in 2023.
Experts predict that global risks have the potential to decrease productivity levels as the cost-of-living crisis and growing security tensions affect employees.
The top five trends that organisations need to be aware of in 2023 are:
- Timely, accurate, trusted, actionable: the power of intelligence in decision making;
- Adjusting to ‘perma-crisis’: geopolitical shifts, socio-economic challenges and increasing polarisation;
- Plan for the unplannable: travellers want more support;
- Climate change and other forces are increasing health risks with wide-ranging impacts. A comprehensive approach to health and security is required;
- The happy at work equation (A+B+C)-D. A new era for mental health at work.
“There is no doubt that organisations anticipate further increases in risk levels in 2023 –geopolitics and the threat of interstate conflict are back on the corporate risk agenda,” says Salome Odhiambo, Lead Security Analyst, East & Southern Africa at International SOS.
“In South Africa alone, there have been a number of security related events over the last 24 months. These, coupled with frequent protests, an escalating crime rate as well as persistent natural hazard risks such as flooding events and frequent and prolonged load shedding, mean that not only are security risks on the rise but there are multiple potential scenarios businesses should be planning for.”
Rising Levels of Threats and Social Unrest
Experts predict that social unrest will additionally be a key driver of lost productivity in 2023.
For instance, in Africa, 43% predict that security threats, including protests, violence and terrorism, will impact domestic business travellers.
“Social unrest is clearly going to be a major item on the C-suite agenda in 2023, as the problem is truly multifaceted, affecting organisations and employees in a number of ways. South Africa also moves into an election year next year, which coupled with volatility in energy and agricultural markets will also likely fuel unrest, particularly in unstable, fragile economies within sub-Saharan Africa,” Odhiambo further said.
Best practice for organisations is to consistently revisit the likelihood and possible impact to understand potential implications for their business and people. Effective risk management is about understanding the organisational risk profile and vulnerabilities, ensuring early warning systems are in place and pre-empting likely crisis decisions along with risk mitigation education.
The Growing Impact of Climate Change
In 2023, the impact of climate change needs to be considered at multiple levels beyond the immediate effects of extreme weather events. It is foreseeable that health risks associated with climate change may increase.
Experts advise that climate change is contributing to an acceleration in emergence of new and re-emerging of old infectious diseases, illustrated by the multiple “unusual” outbreaks of the 21st century, including SARS, Ebola, Covid-19 and Mpox. Climate change is also expected to increase mosquito-borne diseases as temperatures and standing water levels increase.
“32% of Africa respondents said their organisation is actively planning for future pandemics and Covid-19 variants,” says Dr Chris van Straten, Global Health Adviser, Clinical Governance at International SOS. “And 58% of companies in Africa are factoring climate change to some extent in their plans.”
Best practice includes undertaking risk assessments of existing and potential health threats and incorporating forecasts for potential geographic extension of hazards due to climate change and other forces. “Crisis and business continuity plans should utilise an ‘all hazards’ approach,” says Dr van Straten.
“And this needs to include mental health”.
Mental Health and Productivity
It is estimated that the total cost of poor mental health and the resultant loss of productivity to the global economy in 2030 will reach $6 trillion. In Africa, 62% of domestic employees who associate mental health issues to a loss in productivity cited the cost-of-living pressures as their top concern and stressor.
“Pleasingly only 1/3 of overall respondents reported a lack of C-Suite and board support – with 92% of organisations planning to increase or keep the same level of mental health support,” says Dr Eileen Rajaram, Senior Coordinating Doctor, Medical Assistance at International SOS.
It is vital that organisations invest in the right support and interventions which will have the greatest impact on employee outcomes and mental health.
“There is no doubt that organisations face a myriad of complex challenges, and the risk landscape continues to change and grow. The key takeaway for organisations is to ensure that you have access to timely, accurate and trusted information to inform your decision-making. You will need to ensure you have early warning systems and support structures in place to manage complexity, and this is achieved by continually reviewing and updating your risk and mitigation plans to minimise the impact of a crisis on your workforce. Only then will you know where to prioritise your efforts and budget,” van Straten further said.
BUSINESS REPORT