Energy experts yesterday said they were positive that an improved Eskom performance will see load shedding stay away for the foreseeable future after last week marked 285 days of no rotational power cuts.
Experts said that improved performance can be attributed to strategic and well-managed leadership at Eskom.
Craig Morkel, chairperson of the Gas Economy Leadership Team at Saoga (SA Oil and Gas Alliance), said that the successful suspension of load shedding for the last 285 days was a reflection of the strategic leadership by Minister of Electricity and Energy, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, and the operational management led by Eskom Group CEO, Dan Marokane.
“The successful implementation of the Energy Action Plan by the National Electricity Crisis Committee (NECOM), comprising Eskom, other organs of state, and the private sector, has resulted in a significant increase in the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) compared to 2023. The EAF in 2024 has been restored to the levels last seen in 2021,” Morkel said.
He added that Eskom’s increased maintenance has played a significant role in reducing load shedding.
“Eskom has been able to decrease unplanned breakdowns (UCLF) as it has been able to create enough headroom to implement more planned maintenance (PCLF) in 2024 than it was able to in 2023, the worst year of load shedding,” Morkel said.
“The Medium-term System Adequacy Outlook (MTSAO) suggests that Eskom is still at risk of load shedding if it cannot keep up with the planned maintenance of its aged coal power station fleet.”
Morkel said that maintenance will be more of a challenge as time progresses.
“As the aged coal power station fleet becomes increasingly expensive to maintain, the present installed capacity of the coal fleet will need to be decommissioned and replaced by alternative energy pathways such as gas-to-power and nuclear power that can predictably generate power at over 85% of annual operating hours, yet also ramp its generation output up and down rapidly enough to fill the sudden and unpredictable intermittency gaps in commercial energy delivered by solar and wind energy,” he said.
Ruse Moleshe, managing director of RUBK, an energy and infrastructure consulting and advisory company, said that the load shedding forecast for 2025 was positive.
“The Energy Availability Factor has been trending upwards, bolstered by the recent positive news of Koeberg Unit 2 (980 MW) return to service. On the supply side, the return to service of Medupi Unit 4 is also expected and another Kusile unit,” he said.
Moleshe added that the unplanned outages have been reduced significantly and planned maintenance continues, which bodes well for future plant performance.
“Supply is comfortably meeting demand. I am confident that the days of load shedding are, after about nine months of a reprieve, unlikely to recur unless something drastic happens in the overall system. Eskom is doing a great job, bolstered by strong leadership and a plan. They deserve to be commended.”
Professor Wikus van Niekerk, dean of engineering at Stellenbosch University, said that various factors have led to load shedding remaining suspended.
“The absence of load shedding is due to increased availability of Eskom generators and reduction of load due to installation of solar PV and reduced economic activity in 2024. It's difficult to say what will happen this year,” he said.
“It can continue to improve, or it can deteriorate if Eskom struggles to get Kusile 1, 2, and 3 back on, bring Medupi 4 as planned, and run into issues with the next outage at Koeberg. At the same time, if there is a surge in demand due to improved economic activity, we will also be worse off.”
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