Winter came early for South Africans after Eskom confirmed shedding and curtailing a combined more than 7 000MW of electricity supply from the grid over the past two days.
This has fuelled chatter around that country that Eskom implemented an unprecedented Stage 7 or Stage 8 load shedding on Tuesday and Wednesday night without informing the public.
However, Eskom’s System Operator yesterday denied reports that had quietly ramped up load shedding from the current Stage 6.
This contradicted Eskom’s spokesperson Sikonathi Mantshantsha, who told another publication that it was accurate to say load shedding was at Stage 7 at that particular time on Wednesday night.
The Eskom System Operator decides on the load shedding stage, which is done in blocks of two to four hours at a time, depending on the amount of power needed to balance the grid.
Generally, load shedding in Stage 4 sheds up to 4 000MW of electricity and results in customers not having power for six hours a day.
Stage 7 and Stage 8 load shedding would reduce up to 7 000MW and 8 000MW, respectively, from the grid, resulting in between 10 and 12 hours of power cuts a day staggered in blocks of two and four hours.
Eskom’s general manager at the System Operator’s office, Isabel Fick, confirmed to Business Report that the total reduction - i.e. load shedding and load curtailment - was estimated to be just more than 7 000MW.
However, Fick insisted that load shedding was currently at Stage 6 indefinitely as previously announced.
“We did not implement Stage 7 load shedding last night. We did, however, implement load curtailment Stage 4 for the qualifying industrial customers,” Fick said.
“Notably, load curtailment is not rotated as with load shedding but is enforced for the entire period of the event. In this case, the event is a continuous 36 hours ending at midnight (last night).”
This comes as the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) yesterday published a report confirming that the Eskom fleet Energy Availability Factor (EAF) continued its declining trend in 2022.
The report showed that Eskom’s fleet had an average EAF of 58.1%, compared to the EAF of 61.7% for 2021 and 65% for 2020, largely due to the increase of unplanned outages.
The CSIR said the year 2022 overtook 2021 as the most intensive load shedding year yet, with December being the highest load shedding month ever.
This was the first year that the majority of load shedding has not been Stage 2, having been overtaken by Stage 4, while Stage 6 load shedding has far surpassed that experienced in 2019, the only other year with Stage 6.
Independent energy analyst Lungile Mashele yesterday said even if Eskom was given the benefit of doubt that it did not implement Stage 7 load shedding this week, the net result was the same as 7 000MW had been removed from the grid as curtailment was usually about 500MW.
Mashele said the CSIR report came at a time when South Africa had now entered Stage 8 load shedding, as the average Eskom fleet EAF in 2022 was below 60% for the first time in its history, which was a testament to the ongoing challenges with their breakdowns.
“The CSIR has been publishing their report for a number of years and what started as a consistent Stage 2 in 2020 escalated to a consistent Stage 4 in 2022, which is the worst year of load shedding this country has ever experienced,” Mashele said.
“2023 will not be any better, as it stands Eskom has surpassed the previous record for continuous load shedding.
“We are now also experiencing Stage 8 as a country, which indicates a significantly constrained grid which is susceptible to a total blackout,” Mashele said.
Eskom’s rotational power cuts have caused untold destruction to economic activity, forcing businesses to slash their trading hours and lay off workers, resulting in subdued growth forecasts
According to the National Treasury, South Africa’s economy will grow at a muted 0.9% in 2023 as a result of prolonged power cuts and the deterioration of port and rail infrastructure.
In its November 2022 Economic Outlook, PwC warned that the country was experiencing an energy shortage that was having a profound impact on its economy.
PwC South Africa senior economist Christie Viljoen estimates that power cuts reduced potential real gross domestic product growth by 5 percentage points in 2022 and that this cost the country around 600 000 in potential jobs.
“South Africa’s power challenges are severely affecting economic growth and jobs at a time when the country urgently needs to recover from the after effects of the Covid-19 crisis to retain its competitiveness and attractiveness,” Viljoen said.
“Indeed, load shedding is the number one brake on economic and employment growth,” he said.
BUSINESS REPORT