By Darshen Naidoo
Professor Jeffrey Herbst, in his 1994 academic publication "Creating a New South Africa" presciently noted: “To date, the ANC has done little to change its formal structure because the first election will be centred on the inequities of the past, but that posture will not survive unchallenged because the ANC will soon be judged by its own record in power.”
It took 30 years, but South Africans have finally delivered their verdict.
The African National Congress (ANC) which has been in power since 1994 and which peaked at 69.69% in 2004, has seen a steady decline of between 4 to 5 percent in each subsequent election and for the first time it garnered less than 60% of support in the 2019 National Election by obtaining 57.5%.
With the count now finalised and declared for the recent National Election that took place on Wednesday, May 29, the ANC has shockingly achieved a 40.18% and 39.4% for the national and regional vote respectively. Unprecedented is this whopping double-digit 17 to 18 percent drop in national support.
By the ANC saying goodbye to 3.5 million votes on the national stage, they also bid farewell to 71 seats in the National Assembly. In 2019 they achieved 230 seats but now this stands at 159.
This moment marks a significant shift in South Africa’s political landscape, signalling the end of the ANC's dominant era, with a high unlikelihood of them rebounding back.
For those older than our current constitutional dispensation, and who were able to see a dramatic change in politics in 1994, it may be more difficult to understand why the youth of our country are wonderstruck at this moment.
We, who are born post-1994, have not experienced anything but an ANC majority-rule during our entire life. We have not experienced any other form of governance, and this in itself has had major repercussions on our attitude, optimism, and hope towards our nation’s development.
However, the recent election result is a tremendous blossom of democratic effort in the 21st century in South Africa and the success of our political system ought to be acknowledged.
It is common for African countries to be afflicted by political and civil unrest following independence from foreign oppressive powers, such as in the case of Gabon, Niger, Sudan, Guinea, Mali, etc.
Thankfully, this has been avoided in South Africa which operates within constitutional democratic parameters. Democracy is a cornerstone principle of South Africa as the first section of the Constitution states that our country is a democratic state founded on the values of, amongst other things, regular elections and a multi-party system of democratic government to ensure accountability, responsiveness, and openness.
In terms of the role that elections play in democracy, Justice Ngcobo eloquently stated in the Constitutional Court case Doctors for Life International v Speaker of the National Assembly: “[General elections, the foundation of representative democracy] enhances the civic dignity of those who participate by enabling their voices to be heard and taken account of.”
Indeed, the voices of the electorate was heard and taken care of, voices which echoed the sentiments of the late Archbishop Desmond Tutu who, while directing his message to the government after the Dalai Lama was not granted an entry visa into the country, had said in 2011: “I am warning you, as I warned the nationalists, one day we will start praying for the defeat of the ANC government.”
Coming back to Prof Herbst’s words, the ANC did not just use past inequities as leverage leading up to its first election but has used the Apartheid-excuse to shield itself from accountability ever since then.
As recently as May 1, celebrated as Workers Day, President Cyril Ramaphosa pinned Apartheid, in a national rally, as the underlying cause for the current high unemployment rate and the poor economy.
This is in spite of the fact that the unemployment rate soared under ANC leadership from 20% in 1994 to 32.9% by the first quarter of 2024.
Nevertheless, Prof Herbst was correct in saying that the ANC will be judged by its own record in power. Was Apartheid the cause of State Capture that transpired under the eye of the ANC-led government.
Was Apartheid the reason why there was more than half a million US dollars stuffed into a sofa on Ramaphosa’s game farm according to the Phala-Phala scandal that broke out in 2022?
Was Apartheid to blame for Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, long-time ANC veteran and former Speaker of the National Assembly, who resigned on 2024, April 03 after allegations arose regarding her soliciting R2.3 million in bribes from a former military contractor?
The electorate has, in essence, responded “no” to these questions in this 2024 National Elections when they democratically, through the weapon of the ballot, chose not to continue believing the deceptions of the ANC for the poor service delivery, corruption and incompetence that has contaminated the South African government for three decades.
No doubt, the emergence of the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party, led by former South African president Jacob Zuma, is a weighty contributor to the ANC’s collapse.
However, one thing remains true: when South Africans chanted ‘Phansi ANC Phansi!’ leading up to the elections, they really meant it.
*Darshen Naidoo is a legal researcher with a resolute interest in economics, politics and public health law and policy.
** The views expressed herein are not necessarily those of IOL or Independent Media.
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