By Tshepo Kgadima
In my field of experience and expertise as an independent economic and energy analyst, in the lead up to recent elections of May 29, I had to plough through the verbose and in some instances hyperbolic documents which we were led to regard as political parties’ manifestos.
I however maintain a conclusion that all mainstream political parties failed to craft their “manifesto” documents in a concise and clear language to ensure their key electioneering messages would not be lost in translation to the already confused and undecided electorate — a case of maximum voluminous information; minimum clarity of thought.
I am on record on various forums to have maintained a firm view that South Africa was headed for a dysfunctional coalition government after the 29 May elections, unless of course, the one whose head will be “anointed with heavy crown” of president this June will in his or her inauguration speech answer the following pertinent and pressing fundamental questions: Does his or her contemplated coalition government comprise of ministers who are competent, knowledgeable, experienced and possess the gumption to emulate “Franklin D.Roosevelt moment of the first 100-days” and steer South Africa in a sustainable and prosperous economic growth trajectory predicated on the vast natural resources of:
1. Minerals (valued at US$2.5 trillion (~R47.55 trillion at current exchange rate to the US$);
2. Coastline of ~2,800 kilometers which is the bedrock of the blue economy;
3. Arable Land of ~13.24 million hectares which is essential for food security and job creation; and
4. Marshal economic infrastructure investment amounting to ~8% annually of the current R6.97 trillion GDP in order to unlock immense economic value from the bountiful natural resources???
I am therefore convinced that the incoming president in the seventh administration would do very well to carefully consider the immortal words of President John F. Kennedy on two occasions that:
“From the beginning of civilisation, every nation's basic wealth and progress has stemmed in large measure from its natural resources. This nation has been, and is now, especially fortunate in the blessings we have inherited. Our entire society rests upon--and is dependent upon--our water, our land, our forests, and our minerals.
How we use these resources influences our health, security, economy, and well-being.” — February 23, 1961 to Congress of the United States; and
Furthermore in his remarks at the Dedication of the Oahe Dam, Pierre, South Dakota, August 17, 1962, President John F. Kennedy aptly said: “Surely a continent so rich in minerals, so blessed with water, and a society so replete with engineers and scientists can make and must make the best possible use of the bounty which nature and God have given us, public and private, federal and local, cooperative and corporate.” — and this is indeed the most opportune era South Africa finds itself at; 30 years since becoming a constitutional democratic republic.
In fairness, however, to the so-called ideologically progressive left leaning political parties, in their broad policies and campaign messages they appeared to be fully alive to the exact type of the bounty that President John F. Kennedy described in so able and complete a manner and therefore a legitimate expectation has arisen among the electorate that they, the so-called ideologically progressive left, will, if they get to form a coalition government and or so-called government of national unity, marshal their efforts to implement policy reforms and legislative mechanisms which can be an efficacious prescribed medicinal tonic for the economically plagued country whose GDP is in a moribund state with current 0.1% growth; a far cry from the august GDP growth targets of 5% plus enumerated in the long forgotten and abandoned National Development Plan.
The incoming coalition government will inevitably be confronted by the reality of what J.F Kennedy aptly warned about: "If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich."
The seemingly insurmountable task of defeating the “three-headed monster” of unemployment-poverty-inequality must therefore be highest in the list of priorities for the incoming coalition government if that which President Kennedy warned against is to be averted for the sake of preservation of South Africa as a sovereign state with a real chance of achieving the elusive goal of “a better life for all”.
As an independent and disinterested but objective observer of political machinations arising from elections, I am amazed that almost all of the political parties that are jogging for seats at the coalition government table, have not even attempted to outline their macroeconomic plans and policy reforms once they occupy their coveted positions in cabinet.
Any coalition government that fails and or refuses to craft and implement a radical but practicable macroeconomic policy reforms within the first 100 days of its inauguration to achieve a 5% plus GDP growth annually; such a coalition government’s premature demise is assured.
The incoming coalition government must urgently be alive to a crude reality that it has been put in an invidious and tenuous position by the oligarchy of the so-called billionaires/financiers/bankers/investors/business, who are vehemently seeking to bulldoze their way into a position of “chief architect” of the character and form of a coalition government to serve their long standing quest for absolute power without ever being on a ballot paper in any electoral process.
Through their so-called organised business associations, they have patently bluffed through their dictation on who must be in a coalition government and their bluff must dutifully be scoffed at by all right thinking patriotic progressives in the coalition of parties that may eventually form the government.
The oligarchs are so braggadocious to a point of patently having claimed to possess unlimited power to influence the currency exchange rate, particularly between the Rand and the U.S Dollar, which can of course only be exercised through the despicable and economically treasonous practice of currency manipulation; a criminal offence prosecutable in the U.S. courts.
At this juncture, the so-called ideologically progressive left leaning parties should have dutifully risen to the occasion and urgently counteracted the treasonous threats to collapse the Rand by putting the international re-insurers on notice to either withdraw cover or repudiate any insurance claims that could arise directly from the conduct of this motley crew of greedy profiteering and power mongering corporate mafiocracy of oligarchs.
Interestingly, in the past week the ANC NEC, in a clear case of terminological trickery, bizarrely concocted the idea of a “government of national unity” (GNU) as opposed to a coalition government. The mooted GNU idea is evident that the ANC leadership suffers dearth of gumption to lead; particularly in a time of great crises.
A GNU is a repugnant ruse to subvert the Constitution of the Republic and hand over power to the ultra right wing fascist and neo-colonial mob which will be led by DA while paralysing the so-called progressive left leaning forces from dissent.
In the final analysis, whatever the ultimate outcome of coalition talks, one thing is certain; a coalition regime mendaciously branded DA-ANC led GNU is a political hand grenade that is surely going to torpedo this “kayak” of state called the Republic of South Africa and set it back to the dreaded era of the dark ages characterised by socio-economic apartheid.
*Tshepo Kgadima is a independent economic and energy analyst.
** The views expressed herein are not necessarily those of IOL or Independent Media.
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