The Lions are currently ninth in the United Rugby Championship standings on 49 points, with Benetton in eighth and Edinburgh in seventh.
Despite having a superior points difference of +133 – with Benetton on -14 and Edinburgh on +44 – captain Marius Louw’s team will be judged by matches won.
Benetton, who host Edinburgh in Treviso tomorrow (2pm kick-off), have won 10 matches and the Scottish franchise 11.
Ulster start the weekend in sixth on 53 points and a points difference of 33, but crucially have won 11 matches, too. They play Munster away tomorrow (6.15pm).
The Lions can finish as high as sixth, which will ensure Champions Cup rugby next season, with as much as 54 points and 10 wins.
Finishing seventh also ensures Champions Cup qualification.
Due to the fact the Sharks won the Challenge Cup, the team that finishes eighth will not contest the Champions Cup next season, as the Durbanites have earned that spot.
The Lions can also finish as low as 12th, if they lose to the Stormers at Cape Town Stadium tomorrow (1.45pm) without collecting any bonus points and Connacht beat Leinster tonight (8.35pm) and the Ospreys beat Cardiff tomorrow (6.30pm).
FOR THE LIONS TO FINISH SIXTH
1. The Lions must beat the Stormers with a bonus point to reach 54 points on the log.
2. Ulster must lose to Munster without collecting a losing bonus point.
3. Either Edinburgh or Benetton must win their match without collecting a winning bonus point, or their match finishes in a draw.
HOW THE LIONS CAN QUALIFY
THROUGH A VICTORY:
1. They beat the Stormers to reach 53 points.
2. Benetton beat Edinburgh or Edinburgh beat Benetton, or their match ends in a draw.
To finish above either Benetton or Edinburgh, the Lions must secure a bonus-point victory over the Stormers and hope that the winner of the match between Benetton and Edinburgh does not win with a bonus point or that match ends in a draw.
A quick reminder on how teams are separated in the standings if they finish on level points ✍🏻 #BKTURC #URC | #RaceToTheEight 🏁 pic.twitter.com/2gPA4WQqir
— BKT United Rugby Championship (URC) (@URCOfficial) May 28, 2024
THROUGH A DRAW:
The Lions can also qualify if they draw with the Stormers to reach 51 points, regardless of the result between Benetton and Edinburgh, as long as those two teams do not draw in the same manner, or the losing team in that match does not collect two bonus points.
It’s GO Time! 🚦
Here’s an explainer of what’s at stake with just 1️⃣ round to go 👇#BKTURC #URC | #RaceToTheEight pic.twitter.com/ZoTydVTcIe
THROUGH DEFEAT:
1. They lose to the Stormers, but collect at least one bonus point by either scoring four tries or losing within seven points to reach 50 points.
2. Benetton beat Edinburgh or Edinburgh beat Benetton, with the losing team collecting no bonus points.
3. Benetton v Edinburgh does not finish in a draw.
4. Connacht lose to Leinster or beat Leinster, but do not collect a winning bonus point.
5. The Ospreys lose to Cardiff or beat Cardiff, but do not collect a winning bonus point.